Rapid earthquake assessment under uncertain conditions

Author: Furkan Narlitepe and Vitor Silva

Date published

24 June 2025

Price
Free
The Institution of Structural Engineers The Institution of Structural Engineers
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Rapid earthquake assessment under uncertain conditions

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Author
Date published
Price
Author

Furkan Narlitepe and Vitor Silva

Date published

24 June 2025

Author

Furkan Narlitepe and Vitor Silva

Price

Free

A report from a project funded by a 2024 EEFIT Research Grant.

Rapid earthquake impact assessment systems are critical for guiding emergency response, yet they face inherent limitations during the first hours following major seismic events. This research investigates how rupture modeling approaches corresponding to the different levels of knowledge and uncertainty for the rupture geometry affect the accuracy of post-earthquake rapid impact estimates. The rupture modeling approaches adopted in the impact assessments are as follows:

  • Point-source approximation (rupture as a single point)
  • Planar rupture model (using nodal plane mechanisms)
  • Pre-calculated rupture (from GEM Foundation's global hazard and fault models)
  • Complex rupture models (published finite-fault solutions)

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